2020 is a year that most people would like to forget, both in terms of personal impacts and the overall economic downturn caused by the pandemic.
While it hopefully will prove to be an anomaly, economic and energy usage data and statistics from 2020 still provide some useful insights and glimpses into future issues. bp recently released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy, a report covering energy consumption through the end of 2020.
The report notes that global primary energy consumption was down 4.5 percent and global carbon emissions were down 6.3 percent, the largest decreases in both metrics since World War II. Primary energy consumption was down about 12 percent in India, 8 percent in the U.S. and 5.5 percent in Russia. China, on the other hand, saw a 2.1-percent increase in energy consumption from 2019 to 2020.
Although declines in use were noted for coal and natural gas, oil had the sharpest decline in global consumption: 9.1 million bpd, or 9.3 percent. That decline is the largest ever seen and accounts for about three-quarters of the total decline in energy consumption. Oil demand fell the most in the U.S. (2.3 million bpd), followed by the decline in the European Union of 1.5 million bpd. China saw an increase in oil consumption of 220,000 bpd.
Patterns in coal production and consumption are also interesting. Both the production and consumption of coal in the U.S. have dropped dramatically since 2010. In 2020, the U.S. had 23 percent of the world's proven coal reserves, but accounted for only 6.7 percent of the world's production and only 6.1 percent of the world's consumption. These figures suggest the U.S. is currently exporting quite a bit of coal. It is likely going to China.
China's production of coal has risen dramatically since 2010 and now accounts for over 50 percent of the world's production. It is also a voracious consumer of coal, accounting for over 54 percent of the world's consumption. India is no laggard either, accounting for over 11 percent of global consumption.
Not surprisingly, the U.S., China and India are also major emitters of CO2. However, U.S. emissions have steadily dropped since 2010, mainly due to fuels being switched to natural gas. By way of contrast, emissions from China and India have steadily grown. China's emissions in 2010 were 8,145 million tons, growing to 9,899 million tons in 2020, which accounted for over 30 percent of the global CO2 emissions in 2020. Indeed, China's CO2 emissions actually increased from 2019 by a little less than 1 percent. India's emissions in 2010 were 1,652 million tons, growing to 2,302 million tons in 2020, accounting for over 7 percent of the global CO2 emissions in 2020.
The bp report also notes that the rate of decline in global carbon emissions observed in 2020 (6.3 percent) is similar to what the world needs to average each and every year for the next 30 years to be on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. If carbon emissions did decline by that much each year, global carbon emissions would decline by around 85 percent by 2050, which is consistent with keeping warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Of course, entire nations shut down their economies in 2020, leading to the decline in carbon emissions. It is somewhat unlikely that similar global shutdowns will occur every year for the next 30 years, especially while China increases its energy consumption, suggesting that achieving the carbon goals may prove elusive. It seems clear, though, that addressing CO2 emissions will have to involve decreases from China and India, both of which show no signs of relenting in their pursuit of coal and other fossil fuel energy.
John B. King is a partner with Breazeale, Sachse & Wilson LLP in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. His practice relates mainly to environmental regulatory permitting and compliance. Prior to joining the firm in 2003, he served as chief attorney for enforcement for the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality.
For more information, visit www.bswenviroblog.com, or contact John B. King at jbk@bswllp.com or (225) 381-8014.
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